Sunday, April 25, 2010

Thank You Senator Graham

Hello Reader,

If you have followed my posts in the past, you have hopefully noticed that for the most part I try to avoid commenting directly on politics. I have also attempted to steer away from fluffy opinion-based posts in favor of academic and informative posts. I fully intend to stick to this formula as much as possible. However, in this case I need to tread dangerously close to both of those boundaries.

Essentially, I wanted to thank Senator Graham (R) from South Carolina for taking a stance on climate change legislation that was covered by a New York Times article today. To very briefly summarize the article, Sen. Graham has been working with Sen. Kerry (D) and Sen. Lieberman (I) on comprehensive energy and climate policy legislation. However, Sen. Graham recently announced that he would stop working on the bill due to the political wrangling in the Senate to simultaneously address immigration policy and climate legislation, which are both expected to be tough issues for gaining bipartisan support.

Now, you might expect that it is odd that I would applaud Sen. Graham's move to stop working on climate legislation. However, this is one of the few definitive public announcements regarding aggressive action on climate change legislation that I can remember. The U.S. federal government has fallen behind the governments of most developed countries and even many states on putting together comprehensive climate change legislation. Even China has moved ahead of the U.S. in the climate policy arena.

In addition to international and state pressure to regulate climate change in a manner that makes sense for the U.S., the court ordered E.P.A. ruling about the need for the E.P.A. to regulate greenhouse gases (including carbon dioxide) under the Clean Air Act will mean that GHGs will be regulated soon whether or not Congress acts. Unfortunately, the manner in which the Clean Air Act is structured GHG regulation will likely be clunky and inefficient. Read this as wasting taxpayer dollars and causing hassle to business owners and citizens that could be avoided by new legislation.

Thus, it seems imperative that the U.S. Congress address climate change and energy policy before the legislators are side-tracked by elections and ultimately break up at the end of their term this year. Otherwise, it could take an entire extra election cycle or two to implement any effective climate change legislation if it happens at all. In the meantime the effects of climate change will continue to move toward undesirable consequences, and the E.P.A. will continue to do its best to regulate GHG emissions under the Clean Air Act. It seems as though that such a scenario would be a lose-lose situation.

Therefore, I would like to thank Sen. Graham for his tough action in the Senate to bring the spot light on climate and energy policy. Far from viewing this as the obstructionist narrative that the Democratic leadership have (rightly or wrongly) constructed about the current Republican strategy in Congress, I see this move as a bold statement about the urgency of addressing an issue with huge consequences that only grow larger the longer we wait to respond to them.

It is in the best interest of all parties, people, and businesses to have a new set of climate change and energy legislation in the U.S. before the end of the year. Even if you do not believe that climate change is occurring and no matter your party affiliation, I highly recommend that you urge your Senators to ensure that there is new legislation to regulate GHG emissions by the end of the 2010.

For my part, I hope that Senators Spector and Casey from Pennsylvania will take this as my personal request as a constituent to ensure just that.

Sincerely,
Sean Diamond

This post refers to:
Graham Pulls Support for Major Senate Climate Bill
By JOHN M. BRODER
Published: April 24, 2010
New York Times
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/04/25/us/politics/25graham.html

Thursday, April 22, 2010

Climate Change: A Societal Cancer

Hello Reader,

Today, as I was reviewing past news articles and academic journal articles in preparation for an upcoming class assignment, I thought up an analogy that I thought I ought to share. The analogy is best described through the metaphor:

"Anthropogenic climate change is a global societal cancer."

Please think about this for a second. After I thought up the metaphor, I was struck by its potency. I thought about its implications.

Imagine for a second that you have not been feeling well, so you set up an appointment for an examination at the doctor. You don't feel completely overwhelmed by sickness, but you just don't seem to be feeling as well as you normally do. You go in for your appointment. A few weeks later, you get an ominous call from the doctor's office. It turns out you have cancer. What do you do next? What are your immediate thoughts?

Naturally, you are likely to be shocked or scared. Do you need to get a second opinion? You want to know if it is serious... how serious?  Are you going to have to have an operation? How much is this going to cost? Do you have enough money saved up to cover the costs? Will your insurance cover the costs? Is there technology or medicine to deal with the type of cancer you have?

If some or all of these questions were at the top of your list, I would guess that you are not alone. I know that they would be at the top of mine. Now, let's follow the analogy using these questions (or similar questions).

We -the world- have been told we have societal cancer (a case of anthropogenic climate change). It is not a societal Ebola virus. We will not suffer a catastrophic, definitive, world-ending "Day After Tomorrow" fever. However, we have gotten a second opinion, and a third, and a fourth... and well, likely more than any cancer patient can ever dream of, to be honest. The issue is we don't know (and can't ever know - thanks to the chaotic nature of the Earth's climate system and the Heisenberg Uncertainty Principle) how serious the cancer is going to be until it happens.

Now, our doctors (scientists) have used all of their mental and technological capacity to estimate what the likely effects will be and what the "worst possible" effects may be. In any case, the possibilities don't look great.

At the best the result may just a few aches and pains; however, this is not likely (a note to bankers and gambling addicts: if this statement excited you, please seek help now!). The doctors have estimated that instead it is likely (although not certain) that if the cancer goes untreated there could be severe consequences.

Of course, the doctors can't be specific about the rate at which or how or where the cancer will manifest itself, so there is a chance it will take a relatively long time (20-80 years in the case of climate change for society could be compared to 20-80 months in the case of cancer for an individual) before the worst effects would be felt and only a few body parts (countries or groups) may be lost. It is also possible that some of the more resilient body parts will remain more-or-less fully intact!

Of course, even with the loss of a few parts, the body can still live on, and it is unlikely that any one particular ailment will cause a catastrophic death on its own. Plus, on the positive side, the doctors have told us they know what the cause is and even given some options about how to prevent the cancer from getting worse!

The question is: "What do we do now?"

Do we wait to see how bad it gets and hope that surgical techniques are up to par in the future? Are we willing to accept the potential loss of a few countries or regions? Do we take our chances of going painfully and quietly into the night?

OR

Do we take some pills that might be tough to swallow and possibly even more expensive than aspirin? Do we start to enact a rigorous treatment process to prevent the spread and even reverse the negative effects of our disease?

In all honesty, the cure to anthropogenic climate change will not be pain free, but it is virtual certainty that the cure will be less painful and less deadly than not addressing the issue.

The sad part is that many individuals, communities, and leaders have not taken the time to fully comprehend the graveness of the diagnosis. Can you imagine reacting to a cancer diagnosis in this manner, even after multiple second opinions? Unfortunately, this is what most people, industries, and countries have done.

Still others have decided that it is not convenient for them to deal with climate change. Many of these people have taken every opportunity to prove to themselves (and others) that the scientific reports are phony and drafted by quacks. In even more devious attempts, some corporations have hired their own group of "experts" to craft reports that indicate that climate change does not exist, is not caused by humans, is not serious, etc. Fortunately, for the most part the worst of these offenders' efforts have failed.

In light of this, I have to ask again: Can you imagine a cancer patient reacting do a diagnosis in this fashion to the point that it kills them? Unfortunately, the answer may very well be yes. Without a strong and global effort that is (perhaps oxymoronically) based on practical, localized initiatives to effectively address the causes of climate change it is entirely possible that this is what we will do.

If you feel that I have oversimplified the matter, you are correct. This is the nature of analogy. It is not perfect. It only serves to illustrate a specific point. If you were struck by this analogy, I encourage you to take it to heart. Please start searching the internet for more information about climate change. Just be aware that there are some people who will be bending the truth without telling you. For my part I can only explain that I have developed my opinions after a lot of academic reading about the science of climate change, and other than my attempts to "leave the world a better place than I found it" and perhaps enjoying a reasonable standard of living in the process I am not trying to gain from this message.

Thanks for your time,
Sean Diamond

Wednesday, April 21, 2010

Dissertation Proposal: Energy Storage

Hello Reader,

As I promised in my previous post, this post includes part of my dissertation proposal. I have decided to spare everyone the mundane details surrounding my time table and contingency plans. I hope this post gives you a good sense of the need for studying electrical energy storage.
----------------------------------------

SUMMARY

In the context of global climate change, energy consumed to generate electricity for regional electric utility grids plays a significant role. The need for a comprehensive simulation focused on optimizing greenhouse gas emissions on a contemporary, developed electric utility grid through the use of viable, large-scale energy storage is established. A methodology for developing such a simulation and a schedule for producing a study are proposed. Contingencies to potential problems are also addressed.

I.    INTRODUCTION

As developed countries seek to modernize their electric utility grid, whether for the sake of cost savings, the environment, energy security, grid stability, or some combination thereof, many utility companies have started to implement or consider the use of large-scale energy storage (ES) systems to meet present and future demand. Careful consideration of present and future grid scenarios and issues such as inefficiencies in traditional non-renewable energy generation (Dell and Rand 2001), the intermittency of renewable energy sources (Pickard et al 2009), the increased use of distributed generation technologies (Bayod-Rújula 2009), and the introduction of plug-in electric vehicles (EVs) (Verhaegh et al 2010) provide a number of opportunities to implement energy management ES systems that reduce the overall greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of a grid thereby lessening the region’s impact on anthropogenic climate change.

II.    JUSTIFICATION

Sims et al (2007) explain that energy use currently accounts for 70 percent of global GHG emissions and of this 40 percent is used to produce electricity. Furthermore, approximately two-thirds of electricity is generated through the combustion of fossil fuels (i.e. coal, lignites, natural gas, and oil), which creates direct GHG emissions (Sims et al 2007). As a result, comprehensive attempts to mitigate anthropogenic climate change will likely involve addressing electricity generation and use in some form or another.

Due to the contemporary structure of electric grids, electricity must be generated at the time of use, which causes inefficiencies that exacerbate the associated impact on anthropogenic climate change. Even everyday conditions such as diurnal fluctuations in demand are a source of avoidable emissions (Dell and Rand 2001). The inclusion of ES systems on a grid can decouple electricity supply from demand, reducing the impact of such inefficiencies (Chen et al 2009, Dell and Rand 2001).

Chen et al (2009) indicate diurnal and annual demand fluctuations not only cause generation inefficiencies but also require that generation capacity be over-built to meet peak demand that may only last a few hours each year. With sufficient ES capacity to meet such peak-demand the construction of additional primary generation capacity can be delayed or avoided (Dell and Rand 2001).

Dell and Rand (2001) suggest that peak-shaving and load-leveling with ES can reduce the need to maintain plants in “spinning reserve” (i.e. generating electricity at sub-nominal values) to avoid a short-term shutdown. When fossil fuel plants are operating in spinning reserve, the GHG emissions per kWh of generation is greater than emissions during optimal generation (Voorspools and D’haeseleer 2000). Instead, plants can be maintained at optimal generation levels by running at a constant or near-constant rate (load-leveling or peak-shaving respectively), charging ES systems during low-demand and allowing ES systems to meet demand during peak conditions (Chen et al 2009).

In addition to the limitations of traditional energy production, ES appears to play an even greater role in future development plans and attempts to mitigate climate change. Perhaps most significantly, as developed nations look to integrate emission-free renewable energy technologies with intermittent generation into their energy portfolio (e.g. NCSC 2009), the integration of ES systems on the utility grid may be not only desirable but necessary for the practical and economic viability of large-scale implementation (e.g. Pickard et al 2009, Aguado et al 2009, Benitez et al 2008). Additionally, Voorspools et al (2000) has suggested that studies analyzing GHG emissions associated with “emission-free” technologies need to take into account indirect emission embedded in construction in addition to the direct emissions from the fuel cycle, which is traditionally the limit of the scope of energy generation analyses.

Bayod-Rújula (2009) and Verhaegh et al (2010) suggest that the future of the electricity grid in developed countries will likely involve increased distributed (non-centralized) generation and/or the wide-scale use of EVs and residential heat-pumps, which may vastly alter the nature of the contemporary diurnal supply and demand cycles. In the US in particular mass production of EVs seems imminent within the next several years (Woody and Krauss 2010). Thus, earlier studies that have not consider these developments will need to be reexamined or taken with caution.




Chen et al (2009) have thoroughly explored the state of ES technologies in the present and near-future. Their analysis roughly divides ES technologies into two categories (see TABLE J1), those that are useful for power quality management (capable of making short-term, high power, low energy interventions) and those that are useful for energy management (capable of mediating variations in supply and demand). Though power quality management ES technologies have a definite role to play to play in the future stability of the electricity grid (e.g. Shayeghi et al 2009 and Hartikainen et al 2007), their likely contributions seem difficult to quantify in an absolute manner. Therefore, it seems more reasonable and useful to focus on energy management ES and the tangible effects it could have on GHG emissions in the near-term. Of course, focusing on the near-term means that some technologies are not yet viable on a commercial (large-) scale (Chen et al 2009). In fact without even considering cost limitations, only pumped-hydro power, compressed-air, and certain types of batteries and flow-batteries have examples of successfully developed MW-scale systems capable of operating for multiple hours.

Voorspools and D’haeseleer (2000) stress the need for a simulation tool, stating: “Since it would be impractical to constantly monitor the instantaneous composition of the power system and to calculate (or measure) the corresponding emissions… [f]or studies or scenarios carried out for future or hypothetical developments, monitoring is not even an option and, hence, a simulation tool is essential.” They also highlight the need for “instantaneous” rather than “linear” emission approximations (i.e. not using daily or annual average figures) to accurately determine GHG emissions under varying demand-supply scenarios (Voorspools and D’haeseleer 2000). Despite the need for a sufficiently resolved time-scale, the duration need not be exceptionally long. For example, Verhaegh et al (2010) elected to focus on one week periods during different seasons (e.g. winter and summer), which suggests that this is a reasonable approach to avoid simulating an entire year’s worth of data.

Finally, while a number of energy simulation studies have examined some combination of traditional generation, intermittent generation, and ES systems, the majority of recent studies appear to have optimized their results for financial gain (e.g. Aguado et al 2009, Benitez et al 2008, and Crampes and Moreaux 2010); however, optimizing a system for financial gain will likely result in inefficiencies with regard to GHG emissions (Voorspools and D’haeseleer 2000). Thus, with the issue of global climate change in mind, there is a distinct need to consider situations optimized to reduce GHG emissions.

III.    OBJECTIVE

The objective of this study is to assess the potential near-term impact on greenhouse gas emissions of a large-scale implementation of energy storage systems on an electric utility grid in a region with a fully developed grid system. To achieve this objective, technical data will be collected and a simulation will be developed.

<---sections omitted here--->

VII.    OUTCOME

This study should fill a significant gap in the literature by combining ES with a variety plausible demand and supply scenarios and focusing on GHG emissions optimization rather than pure fiscal optimization. The final results of this study should offer insight regarding the degree to which the addition of energy storage on an already-developed, though evolving electricity grid can enable GHG emissions reductions. These results should be particularly valuable as utility companies and regulators evaluate their options to meet and develop current and near-term energy portfolio standards.

For a list of references please see the accompanying post.

Dissertation Proposal References

This post provides a list of references from the accompanying post.

REFERENCES

Aguado, M., E. Ayerbe, C. Azcarate, R. Blanco, R. Garde, F. Mallor, and D.M. Rivas, 2009: “Economical assessment of a wind-hydrogen energy system using WindHyGen® software”, International Journal of Hydrogen Energy, 34, 2845-2854.

Bayod-Rújula, A.A., 2009: “Future development of the electricity systems with distributed generation”, Energy, 34, 377-383.

Benitez, L.E., P.C. Benitez, and G.C. van Kooten, 2008: “The economics of wind power with energy storage”, Energy Economics, 30, 1973-1989.

Crampes, C. and M. Moreaux, 2010: “Pumped storage and cost savings”, Energy Economics, 32, 325-333.

Chen, H., T.N. Cong, W. Yang, C. Tan, Y. Li, and Y. Ding, 2009: “Progress in electrical energy storage system: A critical review”, Progress in Natural Science, 19, 291-312.

Dell, R.M. and D.A.J. Rand, 2001: “Energy storage – a key technology for global energy sustainability”, Journal of Power Sources, 100, 2-17.

Hartikainen, T., R. Mikkonen, and J. Lehtonen, 2007: “Environmental advantages of superconducting devices in distributed electricity-generation”, Applied Energy, 84, 29-38.

NCSC (North Carolina Solar Center), 2009: “Pennsylvania Incentives/Policies for Renewable & Efficiency”, DSIRE (Database of State Incentives for Renewables & Efficiency), , last accessed 22 FEB 2010.
 

Pickard, W.F., A.Q. Shen, and N.J. Hansing, 2009: “Parking the power: Strategies and physical limitations for bulk energy storage in supply-demand matching on a grind whose input power is provided by intermittent sources”, Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 13, 1934-1945.

Shayeghi, H., H.A. Shayanfar, and A. Jalili, 2009: “Load frequency control strategies: A state-of-the-art survey for the researcher”, Energy Conservation and Management, 50, 344-353.

Sims, R.E.H, R.N. Schock, A. Adegbululgbe, J. Fenhann, I. Konstantinaviciute, W. Moomaw, H.B. Nimir, B. Schlamadinger, J. Torres-Martinez, C. Turner, Y. Uchiyama, S.J.V. Vuori, N. Wamukonya, and X. Zhang, 2007: “Energy Supply”, Climate Change 2007: Mitigation. Contribution fo Working Group III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the International Panel on Climate Change [B. Metz, O.R. Davidson, P.R. Bosch, R. Dave, and L.A. Meyer (eds)], Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA.

Verhaegh, N., P. deBoer, and J. van der Burgt, 2010: “Distributed Generation: Intelligent E-Transportation Management”, Leonard Energy, www.leonard-energy.org, 1-15.

Voorspools, K.R. and W.D. D’haeseleer, 2000: “The influence of the instantaneous fuel mix for electricity generation on the corresponding emissions”, Energy, 25, 1119-1138.

Voorspools, K.R., E.A. Brouwers, and W.D. D’haeseleer, 2000: “Energy content and indirect greenhouse gas emissions embedded in ‘emission-free’ power plants: results for the Low Countries”, Applied Energy, 67, 307-330.

Woody, T. and C. Krauss, 2010: “Cities Prepare for Life with the Electric Car”, New York Times, available online 15 FEB 2010.

Saturday, April 17, 2010

Wind Turbine Intermittency

Hello Reader,

I wanted to draw your attention to a New York Times article from the past week that highlights one of the major challenges facing developed countries as we try to connect increasing numbers of wind turbines to national and regional electricity grids. That is: intermittency.

Wind turbines are notorious for generating intermittent energy. From a physical perspective this makes sense, because wind does not blow at the same speed all the time. However, when it comes to the electricity grid intermittency can be a huge issue.

On a very small scale, such as a single isolated wind turbine on a farm, this issue can be over come by simply combining the wind turbine with a battery storage system. In such cases, intermittency is not really an issue unless the wind simply stops blowing for days at a time.

On a somewhat larger scale, such as the current state of the US electricity grid, where wind turbines only make up a small percentage of electricity generation the fluctuations are manageable. That is the gaps in generation caused by wind turbine intermittency can be filled in by other generation sources.

Of course, as the article indicates when wind energy starts to make up larger percentages (e.g. 20%) of generation sources, intermittency can pose serious risks to grid stability (e.g. increasing the risk of brownouts and blackouts). The article suggests studies are testing the possibility of connecting multiple turbine farms together to level off the effects of intermittency and provide a more consistent power source. From a physical perspective this also makes sense because when the wind is blowing in one location it may not be blowing in another and vice versa. This means electricity generation will be averaged out.

While this does appear to be a crucial step towards large scale implementation of wind energy, more infrastructural concerns must be addressed. One such step includes the mass introduction of electrical energy storage, which allows electricity to be produced at one point in time (e.g. when the wind is blowing hardest) and used at another point in time (e.g. when you wake up and turn on your electric razor). Unfortunately, the current structure of the electricity grid is not compatible with this concept. As it stands, electricity must be produced as it is being used and at no other time.

Not only is this an issue for installing wind turbines, but it also has massive impacts on the efficiency of traditional fossil fuel and nuclear plants as well. As such, energy storage is the topic of my postgraduate dissertation. Next week I will post part of my dissertation proposal, which explains more about the issue and the need for research into the field. In the meantime, I encourage you to look into the topic for yourself.

The article I referenced within this post is:
A Grid of Wind Turbines to Pick Up the Slack
By HENRY FOUNTAIN
Published: April 12, 2010
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/04/13/science/13obwind.html

Sincerely,

Sean Diamond

Sunday, April 11, 2010

Demonstration to Explain Climate Change

Hello Reader,

I was recently asked by a friend about how to explain to people that one particular weather event (e.g. excessive snow fall in the US) can be reconciled with long-term climate change. As a result, I came up with a "demonstration" of sorts to explain the difference between climate and weather. Please feel free to try it out, and let me know how effective (or ineffective) it may be for explaining climate change. Of course, it is only a metaphoric demonstration, so it will by no means be able to thoroughly explain climate change. (If you can come up with that, I'm sure there will be a Noble prize waiting for you.)

At any rate, to do this demonstration, you will need a pencil and paper, an ordinary deck of 52 cards, someone (0r a group of people) who is confused about how climate change is real when it is not always hot outside, a little bit of time, and a lot of patience. Good luck!

Setting the stage:

Prior to the demonstration, you need to explain the difference between climate and weather. Now, there are a lot of different ways to do this depending on how technically inclined your audience is. However, for the purposes of this demonstration, it will suffice to explain that weather is what is happening in the atmosphere at any particular point in time (or day) and climate is what you will expect to happen during a particular time of year based on the average weather for that time of year. While climate and weather include all conditions that describe the atmosphere, this demonstration will stick to temperature at first.

While you are discussing the difference between climate and weather, you will need to separate the cards into different piles: Ace-5, 6-10, Jack-King. During the first phase of the demonstration, you will need all of the ace-5 cards, a pair of each of the 6-10 cards (one black and one red each), and four Queens. Set the rest of the cards aside out of the way, and shuffle together the cards you plan to use.

Explain that:
-all Queens are going to represent a value of "zero"
-all Aces are going to represent a value of "one"
-all red cards (other than the Queens) represent a positive number of degrees Fahrenheit
-all black cards (other than the Queens) represent a negative number of degrees Fahrenheit

Round 1: the Climate

After the deck is well shuffled, instruct one of the participants to draw 5 cards. Explain to them that each of these cards represent the temperature in a 5-day weather forecast (or actually the difference between the average temperature for that month of the year and the high temperature recorded for that particular day). (e.g. if you are using February as the month and New York City as the place it would be reasonable to use 35 degrees Fahrenheit as your average temperature.) Of course, this will be different for every place and every month, so if you don't what the average temperature should be just use a best guess for the purpose of the demonstration.

As an example, let's assume that 35 deg F is our average temperature, and the first 5 cards drawn are:
5 clubs, 2 hearts, 3 diamonds, 4 hearts, Q spades
In this case, the temperatures for the 5-day weather forecast would be:
30 deg F, 37 deg F, 38 deg F, 39 deg F, 35 deg F

Write down the each of the numbers, and then shuffle the cards back into the deck. At this point, it would also be good to calculate an average for the 5-day week, and write that down as well. (For our example it would be 35.8 deg F.)

Depending on how much patience your group has or how much time you have for your demonstration, I would recommend repeating this 5-day forecast process for at least 10 times or so (a.k.a. a decade's worth of "data" for five days in February). Or if you have a larger group and several decks of cards, split up the group and ask each group to repeat the process at least 10 times.

When you have all of your data compare the averages of each week. Are there any outliers (very hot or very cold weeks)? It may be that there are not, but the more chances you have to repeat the process the more likely that there will be at least one outlier. If you have multiple groups, see if there are any major differences between the groups. Finally, find out what the overall averages of all of the weeks that have been recorded. Unless you have only performed a few repetitions or luck is just not on your side, the average you calculate should be close to what you assumed the average was to begin with (in our example: 35 deg F). At this point, it is probably fair to also discuss how weather can of course have a much wider variability than what is represented by this demonstration.

Round 2: Anthropogenic Climate Change so far...

While you are having your discussion, it is time to alter the deck(s) and add the influence of anthropogenic climate change. Remove all black 9's and 10's. Remove one black 4 and one black 5 from each deck. Add in all of the red 6's and red 7's

Repeat the entire process as described in Round 1. Make sure to use the same baseline average temperature! (If you started by using 35 degrees, continue to use 35 degrees.) Once you have collected all of your data, compare the averages from each of the two rounds. If you have done a sufficient number of 5-day forecasts, there is a good chance that your overall average has shifted upwards.

Even if it hasn't, you should also ask the audience to count up the number of times that the temperature surpassed or stayed below a certain threshold. In our example a good threshold to use would be 32 deg F (a.k.a. the freezing point of water). How many days were there in each round where the high temperature for the day was below freezing? What implications would this have for the way we experience the weather in a particular year, or our impression of climate? If your example was in the summer time instead, it might be good to see how many days rose above 80, 90, or 100 deg F depending on where you live. If you have access to the thermostat, it might be good to also see how many days have surpassed the temperature that the air conditioning is set at (these are the days that people will have to pay for extra electricity to stay cool).

Round 3: What May Happen...

If you have not gotten your point across yet and/or you would like to make your point just a little bit sharper, you can simulate what scientists expect may happen to the climate in the future. At this point it is fair to warn the audience, what scientists expect may or may not come exactly true. It is only the best guess that can be made using decades of real data from across the globe. And in the real world case, scientists can't know with certainty what the impact of various emissions will be.

However, to make this point, it is time to:
-remove all black cards above 4
-remove one black 4 and one black 3
-remove one Queen
-add in all remaining red number cards

Go through the experiment again and compare the differences between this round and the first two rounds.

Conclusion:


It is important to explain that the extent to which the temperature will rise in any particular place will be different. It is also important to note that the timescale at which these sorts of changes occur is difficult to determine. It may be several years to a couple of decades to an entire century. However, it is likely that the global average will rise quite a bit if nothing is changed about the way that greenhouse gases are emitted. Also, it is difficult to predict at what point "feedbacks" might kick in causing the ever-dreaded run-away climate change.

Possible addition:

If you would really like, you are also able to add in a precipitation factor by using the flip of a coin or the roll of a die to simulate whether or not it is going to rain, sleet, snow, etc. I would not recommend doing this unless you really know more about weather than the average person. Also, it may take a little bit of detective work to figure out a reasonable precipitation rate in your region. However, if you do go through this trouble, you may be able to show why there is a chance that "global warming" could cause increased winter snowfall where you live. The science is there, but it is a bit more technical and more difficult to demonstrate.

Well, in any event, I hope that this has given you another tool in your tool box when it comes to explaining climate change to non-scientist types. Please do let me know if you discover anything drastically wrong with this demonstration or have any tips or personal experiences to enhance it. Feel free to augment this however you need to in order to make sense to your audience. Just be careful not to misrepresent the limits of the analogy presented in this demonstration!

Good luck,
Sean Diamond

Thursday, April 8, 2010

Climate Change Economic Policy in a Nutshell

Hello Reader,

Today I stumbled upon the most concise, non-academic, non-skeptical, un-exaggerating article I have read about the economics and policy of climate change. If you are at all interested in the topic of climate change, curious what the real debate is about and why nothing is getting done, then I cannot offer a more straightforward article.

Published: April 5, 2010
How we can afford to tackle climate change.
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/04/11/magazine/11Economy-t.html

I am not saying that there is not a plea for action, because there is. However, if you take the time to read through all 10 pages of the article, I believe that you will find two things. The first is that article clearly expresses what the author's opinions and views are and what the current state of scientific and political debate are. Climate change is by no means a straightforward issue, and the author does not cover every possible angle of the debate. Yet the ones that he does cover are some of the mostly likely to be considered the root issues with knowledgeable debaters who are honest with themselves.

After two semesters of graduate study of climate change science and rigorously following the political, economic, and scientific debates to the best of my ability, I cannot find any points of exaggeration within the article. If after reading the article you do find points that you find questionable or particularly illustrative, I would love to hear about it.

Thanks,

Sean Diamond

Saturday, February 20, 2010

GMO 2.0: mitigation for consumption

Hello Reader,

I realize it's been a while since I've posted anything, so I apologize if you've been waiting patiently for my next post. In any event, I was reading the New York Times online when I came across an Op-Ed piece: "End Animal Pain on Factory Farms" by Adam Shriver, a doctoral student from Washington University.

To briefly summarize some of the key points in the article:
  • In the past 35 years, American red-meat consumption per capita has stayed at 100 pounds per year.
  • Increased demand for meat has lead to "factory farms" (i.e. animals packed into very tiny areas and fed diets that are not healthy, but cause them to become meat more efficiently).
  • The factory farms cause painful conditions and health problems in the farm animals.
  • In response to this, neuroscience offers a solution: using genetic modification to farm animals that reduces their ability feel pain.
  • The process is considered safe for human consumers because "animals have specific proteins removed, rather than new ones inserted, so there’s no reason to think that their meat would pose more health risks for humans than ordinary meat does."
Given the description of the author at the bottom of the article, I can only presume that this article is written from an academic perspective. As such, I am going to assume that the facts presented are more or less accurate.

Naturally, in the spirit of academic debate, I would like to question a few of these assumptions. I shall start with the last bullet point before discussing the first four in aggregate. As a note to the reader, I am beginning with what I perceive to be the area of my lesser expertise and moving toward that of my greater expertise.


GMO 2.0: the Pain-Resistant Pig

At this point, I have no reason to doubt the quoted text in the last bullet point. That is to say that the text itself does not give me pause. Instead, I am concerned by what is not said.

By drawing attention to the most direct and obvious concern of the average reader, their own health or perhaps that of their friends and family, the author has (perhaps inadvertently) drawn attention away from the other concerns raised by genetic engineering. I am not referring to wild science fiction fantasies of runaway mutations, zombie-esque plagues, or anything of that nature, so do not mistake my meaning in that way. Rather I refer to realistic concerns that have already been raised surrounding genetic engineering.

The issues that spring to my mind most immediately are that of viability and liability. The latter issue, legal liability, has been discussed at length following the Monsanto patent infringement law suits, and is the focus of an article in the Washburn Law Journal (McEowen 2004), so I will not discuss it further here. However, the former issue, viability, is something that I would like to focus on briefly. Ignoring for the moment the animal rights issues, I want to consider the practical issue of a species viability once a pain-resistant strain of DNA has been introduced.

In one paragraph of the article it is stated that the mice, which have been used to test the genetic engineering, "do not avoid situations where they experience such pain". However, the following paragraph states that, using the same methods, in cows and pigs "the sensory dimension of the animals’ pain would be preserved, [so] they would still be able to recognize and avoid, when possible, situations where they might be bruised or otherwise injured."

To me this seems contradictory, so I may be missing some crucial information. However, it begs the question, will the pain-resistant farm animals avoid being injured or not? Also, despite the similarities in neural structures, would a translation from mice to pigs produce the same behavioral results? And in the end would engineered pigs, and their offspring that may or may not be interbred with non-engineered pigs, be able to survive in current condition?.

Or just as importantly, would they be able to survive in conditions outside of factory farms where the issue may not be crowding but predators or other dangers? These sorts of issues would become paramount if the US ever decided (or was forced) to shift away from factory farms. They would also become an issue if despite any regulations or obstacles these farm animals would find their way onto farms in undeveloped countries. While I must concede that pain-resistant farm animals may be more robust than my imagination leads me to believe, it seems like a legitimate concern to me.

Mitigation for Consumption

I want to make it clear that my intention is not pick on all of those people who are simply doing they're jobs. I am also not saying that they aren't complicate. Instead I would like to question what the "choices" are. To do this, I am going to focus a little bit more attention on my first four bullet points above.

In the article the increase in meat consumption was offered as an unavoidable situation. Therefore it follows that since the meat consumption (and therefore the factory farm scenario) cannot be avoided, it is logical to try to mitigate the pain of the animals while they are alive and, as alluded to in the article, the unnecessary, premature loss of animals (meat) and the subsequent loss of revenue to the factory farms. If all of these stipulations are assumed conditions (and GMO concerns are more or less irrelevant as indicated by the last bullet point), then I would likely come to the same conclusion as the author.

To summarize this line of thoughts into one, pain-resistant farm animals are an ethical and financial means of mitigation for the current levels of meat consumption in the US (and will be/are for all other countries whose consumption patterns are emulating those of the US).

Thus, I must put it to the reader as to whether this is ethically or financially appropriate. To help with the decision, I'll offer some further clarifications.

Assuming the statistics in the article are true (i.e. red-meat consumption in the US has stayed at about 100 pounds (about 45 kg) per capita per year) and the population has grown from just over 200 million to just over 300 million in the US, the US consumes about 100 billion pounds more red-meat per year than it did in 1975! If these sorts of figures were extrapolated to the rest of the world or even just population growth in the rest of the world, such a figure would be astronomically larger.

Of course, 100 billion pounds is just a really big number, so let us bring this figure into focus. This is not just saying that the average American is eating 100 pounds of red-meat per year (translation: 400 quarter pound burgers per year... or more than one quarter pound burger per day!). The word "average" in the previous sentence means that even considering that many Americans (vegetarians and infants and many others) are not eating multiple portions of red-meat per day in addition to all of the other meats, fruits, vegetables, grains, dairy products, and sweets, Americans on aggregate are eating a lot of red-meat. However, I suspect few of them would even think twice about a day where they had red-meat as part of breakfast, lunch, and dinner.

Based on the description in the article, it would seem that meeting increased consumption with factory farms is an ugly business, and pain-resistant engineering is an acceptable (or even morally superior) cosmetic fix. Perhaps the author even recognizes this poetic justice in the opening paragraph wherein he refers to a reduction in cosmetics testing on animals over the past 35 years.

I find the implications of this poetic justice particularly intriguing in that it implies that US society takes more issue with mistreating animals by applying cosmetics than it does with altering animal DNA. And even more intriguing in that it is perceived to be more socially acceptable to do this than ask people to question, change, and/or make them aware of their choices in food consumption.

In conclusion, I would like to ask the reader whether it is better to attempt to mitigate the side effects of such consumption patterns or instead alter the perceived need such patterns of consumption. Personally, moderating red-meat consumption does not seem like too much to ask, but then again I am not everybody else.

I hope you have enjoyed my analysis and musings. I look forward to reading yours in the comments below.

Sincerely,

Sean Diamond

Sunday, January 10, 2010

Book Review: Powerdown

Hello Reader,

Now that I'm back, I figured I might post a copy of one of my assignments from Sustainable Consumption. The following is book review I wrote for Richard Heinberg's book Powerdown. As part of the assignment, we were asked to write the review targeted at readers of a particular academic journal, so please note that I did not actually write this for Local Environment and that it is in no way affiliated with the journal in any way. Otherwise, I hope this gives you an idea about whether or not the book is worth your while.


------------

Book Review of
Powerdown: Options and actions for a post-carbon world
By Richard Heinberg
I. Introduction

I will be reviewing the Richard Heinberg (2004) book Powerdown: Options and actions for a post-carbon world for Local Environment: The International Journal of Justice and Sustainability. Regular readers of Local Environment will likely find the general subject matter of Powerdown familiar; however, the author frames the potential outcomes and options for action available to individuals and society more starkly than the manner in which most environmentalists and policymakers may be accustomed.

As such, I recommend this as a must read for readers who are looking for a unique perspective. However, I must caution readers that some of the political rhetoric contained within certain sections will likely put off those with staunch right-leaning and to some extent left-leaning political beliefs. Since this book was originally written in the lead up to the 2004 US Presidential election, I must urge academic readers to look past the strong partisan and anti-Bush messages and focus more on the issues of sustainable consumption which are well articulated. During the remainder of this review, I will provide further context for the views of the book, summarize and discuss the main arguments of the book, and highlight some of the strengths and weakness of the book.

II. Context

This book was published prior to the release of the 2007 IPCC report on global climate change, which has largely served to indicate that the problem may indeed be more severe and the solutions more complex than was initially portrayed by the author (Jansen et al. 2007). Thus, this book should be read with the understanding that Heinberg’s words were fairly revolutionary in that almost no one else (at least in the US) was saying what he has written. Or perhaps, given that Heinberg refers to a number of authors, institutions, and projects that support his ideas, it is more appropriate to say that almost no one was hearing or reading the sort of ideas put forward in Powerdown.

Beyond the overt anti-Bush messages sprinkled throughout the book, Powerdown must be read with an eye toward the other major events occurring while it was being written and published. Fortunately for the reader, Heinberg highlights many such events in grey sidebar boxes as they relate to the subject matter, which makes the context relatively clear even if some sidebars are politically biased.

Despite the left-leaning political bias of the author, Heinberg tends to make credible points, which are legitimately relevant to the subject matter, through the use of the sidebars. One clear example of this is the sidebar entitled: “WHAT SHOULD HAVE BEEN George W. Bush’s Speech to the Nation, 9/11/2001” (emphasis and capitalization from original, Heinberg 2004: 76-77) in which the author rephrases President Bush’s speech to contain a message supporting sustainable consumption and shifting away from a dependence on foreign resources that facilitates global inequity and breeds international contempt for the United States. It is seems unlikely that any modern president, let alone President Bush, would have phrased the speech in quite the same way as Heinberg. However, this simply acts to reinforce the author’s message throughout the rest of the book, which is based on the differences between a society and infrastructure that support sustainable consumption and the current system.

III. Summary

Heinberg begins the book by frankly discussing the historical, current, and likely future state of global energy consumption based on trends in the discovery, processing, and consumption of fossil fuels (and other energy sources). Then the author goes on to describe current mainstream policies, cultural norms, and industrial practices which have set the world up for what he describes as the “Last One Standing” scenario. The last one standing, which Heinberg considers the default result, is a scenario where nations compete more fiercely through economic and military means over evermore scarce resources until society collapses or humanity becomes extinct. In response to the last one standing, the author offers an alternative, which he terms the “Powerdown” scenario. The powerdown scenario, which the author frames as possible but extremely unlikely, requires cooperation and self-limitation on individual, community, national, and global scales.

After laying out the two primary scenarios, Heinberg refutes a number of the easy ways out of the looming energy crises, including finding alternative fossil fuel sources and converting to a hydrogen-based economy. The author also emphasizes that the root of the problem lies within the current system of unsustainable consumption that was established during a long period of increasingly available, cheap fossil fuel energy sources, which will not last during the inevitable, impending decline in oil discovery and production. Finally, Heinberg provides examples of options for preserving society, individuals, and local communities beyond the more likely last one standing scenario, and he ends the book by outlining options and limitations that different groups (government and corporate elites, members of the environmental movement, and members of the general public) will face as they attempt to address current unsustainable practices.

IV. Analysis

The main message of Powerdown is clearly that non-mainstream changes to consumption habits will be very difficult but ultimately necessary to avoid the worst results of current consumption patterns; however, given the political context in which it was written, it is important to extract the academic messages from the general message to verify the urgency of action and the magnitude of the issue.

As noted previously, the urgency and stakes called for by the author seems to be codified at least in spirit by the release of the 2007 IPCC report. Although, it is interesting to note that Heinberg (2004: 96) refers to the Kyoto Protocol as “an initial step toward Powerdown: while intended as a solution to global climate change, it effectively also addresses the problem of energy resource depletion.” This view raises some ideas that are not thoroughly explored by the author regarding whether the effects of climate change or resource depletion will first make an impact that could spur a powerdown scenario or if the effects of both occurred simultaneously with more horrific (or offsetting) results than those discussed in the book.

Additionally, in an article in Local Environment Rees (2008) describes biological, psychological, and sociological evidence that is consistent with Heinberg’s assessment of the likelihood of the last one standing scenario and the necessity and difficulty of fulfilling the powerdown scenario. Furthermore, the premise of current consumption and future depletion of available fossil fuel resources upon which Powerdown is based, even if it turns out to be overstated, seems consistent with messages from oil industry professionals, some of whom are sited directly in the book and can be verified on the US Energy Information Administration (2009) website. Thus, it seems reasonable to consider Powerdown as an academically sound book with an important message for those considering environmental, energy, and consumption policies as well as the general public.

V. Strengths

To the author’s credit he makes a number of attempts to highlight the actions of the very policymakers who he is criticizing to confirm that his understanding of the world’s energy situation is not unfounded, nor truly unique. A particularly good example of this is the sidebar entitled: “The CIA’s Interest in Peak Oil” (Heinberg 2004: 40-41), which refers to the US’s strategic attempt to foster the depletion of USSR oil reserves to facilitate its economic collapse. In this sidebar, as in many other examples, specific, verifiable references are given to support his statements and ideas.

Additionally, in the chapter entitled “Waiting for the Magic Elixir: False Hopes, Wishful Thinking, and Denial” Heinberg spends time specifically refuting common ideas that would otherwise indicate that sustainable consumption issues are not urgent or even exist. This is particularly important as it limits the amount of criticisms available to people who wish to disprove or discredit the thesis of the book simply because it is convenient or useful to them. It also forces those working in the sustainability-related fields to question whether or not what they are doing is truly producing the impact that they intend to make.

Finally, the author does a reasonable job of acknowledging where his own knowledge and his predictions are limited. Thus, the reader is reassured that it is unlikely the author is purposefully exaggerating or that certainty is being claimed where it does not exist. This ultimately allows the reader to be more confident in the author’s conclusions.

VI. Weaknesses

The most pervasive weakness in Powerdown is the political overtones throughout the book. Readers that already agree with the author’s actual message are often those that agree with the political messages in the book, so including politics is somewhat superfluous. However, some readers that could potentially agree with or be convinced of the author’s thesis may put off by the political rhetoric and personal attacks on President Bush. Furthermore, the political rhetoric in the book is directly contradictory to the author’s message that cooperation is necessary. With all of this said, Heinberg certainly would have not done his readers any service by completely ignoring the shortcomings of recent and current political leaders; therefore, the extent to which this issue is an actual weakness of the book is limited.

A second weakness arises from the fact that a large portion of Heinberg’s references are to his previous book The Party’s Over: Oil, War, and the Fate of Industrial Societies. In and of itself this is not necessarily a detriment to the casual reader, and it does allow the reader a further option to explore the underlying principles of the author’s thesis. However, the result for an academic reader, particularly those just beginning to familiarize themselves to the topic, is that Powerdown is not necessarily a standalone resource. Concurrently, to retrieve many of the author’s primary sources the reader must read Heinberg’s other book, which is an excellent marketing strategy, but not necessarily conducive to academia.

VII. Conclusion

Though the direct impact of Powerdown is difficult to ascertain, the book sales were apparently successful enough to warrant a reprinting in 2007. Also, according to search results on Google Scholar during the writing of this review, this book has been cited by 77 other sources including academic papers, books, and university websites from across the globe. Furthermore the potential impact of the book is fairly flexible due to the wide audience for which the author has written the book.

If you happen to have the luxury of picking up Powerdown at a bookstore or library, and you are not sure if you want to read through the entire book, I recommend you flip to the grey sidebar entitled: “This is how I feel sometimes” (Heinberg 2004: 11-13). This sidebar should give you an excellent idea of whether or not this book is for you. If you relate to the way that the author feels, this book is definitely for you, and I suspect you will greatly appreciate it. If you feel as though you are represented by one of the other characters the author describes, you could certainly benefit by taking some of the author’s messages to heart, though you may struggle to relate to some of his messages. Finally, if you do not relate to the author and do not feel you are represented by any of the characters, I recommend that you read this book to try to figure out why not.

Citation for book being reviewed:
Heinberg, R. (2004), Powerdown: Options and actions for a post-carbon world. (Clairview Books, Forest Row).

Other References:
Energy Information Administration (2009), “Forecasts & Analyses: analyses and projections of energy information”, available at http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/forecasting.html, last accessed 8th November 2009.

Jansen, E., J. Overpeck, K.R. Briffa, J.-C. Duplessy, F. Joos, V. Masson-Delmotte, D. Olago, B. Otto-Bliesner, W.R. Peltier, S. Rahmstorf, R. Ramesh, D. Raynaud, D. Rind, O. Solomina, R. Villalba and D. Zhang (2007): Palaeoclimate. In: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Solomon, S., D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B. Averyt, M. Tignor and H.L. Miller (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA. 466-475.

Rees, W. (2008), “Human Nature, Eco-footprints and Environmental Justice”, Local Environment. 13(8) 685-701.

Back Again and a Recommendation

Hello Reader,

I have returned to my blog after an intense couple of weeks of essay writing, followed by a brief holiday trip home, and week of final exams. Now, as I set out on a new semester at the University of East Anglia, I am hoping to maintain this blog with some degree of respectability. A few housekeeping notes for those of you who have decided to read this blog from start to finish: I'm no longer in the Sustainable Consumption class, so I won't have the weekly prompts any more. Instead I'll be flying solo with my own topics. Even so, I'm hoping to keep up the same type of academic, semi-professional style that I hope you've enjoyed and found useful. Of course, since the other students are no longer expected to be looking after their own blogs and likely not following mine, I will certainly appreciate any comments that let me know you are there. Otherwise, I will just content myself to know at some point my musings may be rediscovered with a note of nostalgia when I am rich and famous. But seriously, I will appreciate any feedback, because more likely than not the ideas I put forward will not have been fully developed to their greatest potential.

Also, in my free time over the break and partially to alleviate my eco-guilt about flying, I read a healthy portion of the Transition Town Handbook by Rob Hopkins. So far it has been a good read and seems like it will be useful for my life after university. As such, I highly recommend finding a copy if you are at all serious about making a local or regional impact related to sustainability.

Sincerely,
Sean Diamond

Monday, November 23, 2009

A US-China Solution to Climate Change & the Trade Deficit

I. Introduction

After reading a recent news article about President Obama meeting with the president of the People’s Republic of China, I was not surprised to discover that, although somewhat amiable, the two presidents and the two countries were still at an impasse regarding both climate change and economic issues. From my understanding, neither country is willing to fully pursue an appropriate climate change policy that may cede any economic ground to the other country. Furthermore, as China looks to quickly modernize or develop its economy, it is in perhaps a weaker position to address climate change than the US. Conversely, as the US is currently in debt to China on the order of approximately $800 billion and has simultaneously been running a trade deficit with China that has grown on average by 17% per year for the past decade[1], it is in a somewhat weaker position to make economic demands. Seeing these two disparities, I questioned whether the two issues could be combined in order to solve both issues while allowing both countries and the world to benefit.

II. Exchange Rate

The key to a solution lies in China’s current policy that fixes exchange rate between the Chinese Yuan (CNY) and the US Dollar (USD), which currently stands at approximately 6.83 CNY to 1 USD. By holding the CNY at this ratio, China is able to make its goods cheaper on international markets and make imports more expensive. This financial tactic is often cited as one of the factors exacerbating the US-China trade deficit.

III. The Proposal

Similar to the dual problem being addressed, my proposal contains two primary components. The first is for China to agree to incrementally lower the value of its currency over the next decade. The second is that in exchange the US agrees to take on some China’s responsibility to address climate change. Specifically, my proposal is that over the next decade the US will agree to offer domestic renewable energy subsidies equivalent to value that it saves on the trade deficit due to the adjusted rate of exchange. This strategy could allow the US to annually offset (or prevent) a significant amount (approximately 1.8x1010 MT between 2010 and 2039) of greenhouse gas emissions compared to the current, combined annual emissions of the US and China.[2]

IV. Rate Adjustment

Just as the USD-CNY exchange rate is the key to the solution, the adjustment rate of the exchange rate is the key to determining the viability and impact of the program. While a variety of models are possible, I have chosen a relatively simple model to calculate my results. The model I am proposing calls for China to decrease the exchange rate by a certain percentage each year over the coming decade. Doing so would result in an exchange rate at the beginning of 2020 that is in the range of 6.18:1 to 4.09:1 (CNY:USD) for adjustment rates of 1% to 5% annually.

V. Potential Costs to China

Without question, this program would cost China money. Table 1 shows the cumulative value of costs (based solely on US-China trade deficit figures) to China over the course of the program (from the beginning of 2010 to the end of 2019) in billions of 2010USD at different adjustment rates (rows) and discount rates (columns). While the costs listed in Table 1 only reflect the loss in value from US-Chinese trade, China would also incur additional costs in trade with other countries for which I have not yet accounted. However, assuming that this is seen by the international community as the cost of China continuing to grow its economy in the face of the looming climate change impacts, the costs may be justifiable.


Just how much China would be willing to pay may be a matter of negotiation. As such, this program should merely be one of many tools used to solve the issues put forward in the introduction section rather than an all-inclusive set of actions. Further, the scale of these values should be put into perspective. For example, the 2008 annual US-China trade deficit was $268 billion (not discounted) or in other words 16% of the most costly scenario in Table 1 or 250% of the cheapest scenario in Table 1. Another point of reference is that the US’s debt to China as of September 2009 was about $800 billion (not discounted). With these points of reference in mind, all of the potential costs seem fairly reasonable if not negligible.

VI. Hurdles for the US

In order for this program to be as successful as possible, the US must be willing to use truly renewable energies with the highest possible MWh/$ ratio with the greatest potential to rapidly scale-up over the coming decade. As such, my primary suggestion is to fully invest in large-scale (2 MW or greater) wind turbines, which to my knowledge offer the greatest MWh/$ ratio currently available (approximately $1.6 million per MW of installed capacity) for low-GHG emission energy sources.[3] In this scenario, I suspect that the biggest hurdles to overcome would be NIMBYism (Not-In-My-Backyard objections) and ensuring that the utility grid infrastructure can support the variable energy generation provided by wind turbines.

VII. Assumptions

In order to perform calculations, I was forced to make several assumptions and estimations. In this section I will explain many of these assumptions and estimations and justify my reasoning for each of them.

1. Trade Deficit Growth

The first assumption was that although the US-China trade deficit varies greatly from year to year, it has tended to increase by an average of 17% per year over the past decade. Therefore, I assumed that over the next decade it is likely to do the same. Of course, due to the semi-chaotic variability of international markets, this may not be a safe assumption, so I also looked at some practical limitations to this assumption.

Firstly, if the trade deficit grows more rapidly than 17%, then the result will be that more savings will be realized by the US due to a reduction in the exchange rate. Therefore, although economic relations between the US and China may be further strained compared to current conditions, the greenhouse gas emissions program would receive greater funding. As such, so long as the rate of growth does not surpass some critical value that causes the US economy to disintegrate, from an overall benefits perspective this seems to be a neutral outcome. Furthermore, considering the fact that the disparity between the USD and the CNY will be shifting in favor of the US, it seems more likely that the trade-deficit growth will slow rather than accelerate. However, so long as the growth does not slow by more than 13% per year (at which point the US-China trade deficit will be essentially non-existent by 2020), which seems rather unlikely, the program will still be viable. In fact, even if the average trade-deficit growth decreases by 6% annually (meaning that the trade deficit will peak during 2011 and start decreasing during 2012), the benefits of the program are still substantial.

2. Discount Rate

Another matter that needs to be considered in the case of a long-term venture such as this is the discount rate. With no discount rate applied, the program is extremely viable for all proposed adjustment rates. For any of the proposed adjustment rates, a discount rate of up to 2.75% allows for emissions reductions that are about half of those for a 0% discount rate, and a discount rate of up to 5.5% yields emissions reductions that are about one quarter of those for a 0% discount rate.

3. Technology Rate

Due to the nature of renewable energy research and deployment, it is also important to anticipate a decrease in the cost of renewable energies due to advances in technology, which for simplicity’s sake I have termed the technology rate. While the viability of the program would only be increased by a positive technology rate (causing decreasing costs over time) and is therefore not a concern, estimating a reasonable technology rate allows for a more accurate estimate of the total impact of the program and the degree to which the effects of discounting can be offset. I have assumed a technology rate of 3.5%.[4]

One caveat to the technology rate assumption is that an effectively negative technology rate could be experienced if supply could not be scaled up to meet the newly created demand for renewable energies in a timely fashion. However, I believe that an essentially reliable source of funding and demand over the next decade will merely persuade more suppliers to appear and for current suppliers to invest more heavily in scaling up and improving technology to remain competitive. Therefore, if anything, I suspect that this technology rate may be too low.

4. Wind Turbine Limitations

In the particular case of wind turbine deployment, the capacity factor is crucial in determining the amount of energy produced (and the emissions prevented). For all cases I have assumed a capacity factor of 25%, which means that on average each turbine will be producing 25% of its name plate capacity. In other words for each MW of installed generation capacity, 0.25 MWh will be produced each hour on average. Obviously higher capacity factors will yield greater reductions in emissions just as lower capacity factors will yield lesser reductions in emissions. However, predicting such figures exactly is not practical. Therefore, I have chosen to use a reasonable (although arguably low) capacity factor.[5] In addition to capacity factor, the operating lifetime of installed wind turbines will also be a factor in determining the total electricity generated as a result of this program. To be conservative, I have assumed that each wind turbine will have to be decommissioned twenty years after its installation.

VIII. Results

Based on the assumptions stated in the previous section, I calculated a variety of potential outcomes. Figures 1-5 below depict some of the trends in values that can be expected for different currency adjustment rates and a discount rate of 2.75%.

Figure 1 shows the potential wind capacity that could be installed each year during the program. Note that the last year in Figure 1 is 2019 since this would be the last year that China would be obliged to adjust its exchange rate and that the US would be obliged to continue funding the subsidy. While Figure 2 shows the cumulative capacity that would be available as a result of the program. Given the assumption that I have made about wind turbine lifetimes, the direct impact of the program would not exceed the end of 2039.


Figures 3 and 4 show annual electricity generation and annual avoided greenhouse gas emissions respectively. Note that the trends depicted are identical in shape, because I calculated the avoided greenhouse gas emission by simply multiplying the electricity generation by a factor of approximately 0.609 eCO2 per MWh.[6] The generation and avoided emission do not start until 2011, because presumably the turbines would still be under construction during 2010 and not producing substantial amounts of energy. There is also a decline in the trends after 2031 as the first set of turbines are decommissioned. Although, in reality some turbines may fail prior to this date and others may still be useful well past the predicted lifetime, which would mean that the trends would start to decrease sooner but trail off much more slowly. Admittedly, the values in Figure 4 do not take into account for greenhouse gas emissions associated with production and installation of the turbines. However, in reality this impact would only impact the years in which installations occur (2010-2019), and I suspect it would be relatively negligible if it were amortized over the lifetime of the turbines. Furthermore, any emissions associated with maintenance would likely pale in comparison to the emissions associated maintaining and providing fuel for most other generation types.


Figure 5 shows the value (in millions of 2010USD) of annual energy production. This estimate uses an average US electricity rate of 9.5¢/kWh. Unfortunately, I do not know how to predict with any amount of certainty how much this rate will fluctuate over the course of the lifetime of this program. Therefore, I have simply left it constant. These values also do not account for secondary values that may be associated with installation such as Renewable Energy Credits. The trend shown in Figure 5 depicts an increase in value during the installation period (2010-2019), followed by a slight decrease as energy generation remains constant (2020-2031) and the effects of the discount rate dominate, and ends in a sharp decrease after 2031 as the effects of the discount rate combine with the loss of generation capacity as turbines are decommissioned.



IX. Conclusions

If this program is successfully implemented, wind energy could annually generate an amount of electricity equivalent to 4.8% to 36% of the total amount of electricity generated in the US during 2008[7] for the decade of the 2020s. Furthermore, if the renewable energy subsidies required a 2:1 or 3:1 match on the part of investors, the impact of this program could be double or triple the values that I have calculated. Concurrently, the disparity between value of the US Dollar and Chinese Yuan could be lessened, and the “you first” climate change deadlock between the US and China could be resolved. During negotiations, this solution could be taken a few steps further if (1) China agrees to peak its greenhouse gas emissions during the 2020s and (2) the US agrees to start actively reducing its debt to China during the 2020s.

Finally, while this entire proposal may seem like wishful thinking to some, I feel that its scope is realistic and achievable even if the timeline might need to be adjusted one or two years into the future. However, I recognize that for this program to be successfully implemented, it will take a great deal of action in a lot of areas where rhetoric may be a more common response to problems. Therefore, I remain hopeful but unoptimistic.

Footnotes: US-China Solution

Hello Reader,
I have created this post to unclutter my primary post: A US-China Solution to Climate Change & the Trade Deficit.


[1] I calculated this figure by taking the average of the year-to-year growth of the US-China trade deficit from 1998-2008 as reported by the US Census Bureau. http://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/balance/c5700.html

[2] According to the US Union of Concerned Scientists, the 2006 CO2 emissions for the US was 5902.75 million MT and for China was 6017.69 million MT. In total this is approximately 1.2x1010 MT. http://www.ucsusa.org/global_warming/science_and_impacts/science/each-countrys-share-of-co2.html

[3] Among well-known options: 1) Solar currently has too low of a MWh/$ ratio. 2) “Clean Coal” technologies to my knowledge are not yet proven if they are even feasible, but if the US and/or China are overly insistent some provisions for research funds could be incorporated into a deal. However, it is unrealistic to put too much stock in such technologies in the short-term. 3) Besides the fact that nuclear power stations can take up to a decade to install, they offer a variety of other issues, some of which I have outlined in a blog post: http://seandiamondsustainability.blogspot.com/2009/11/wind-vs-nuclear-power.html.

[4] I have inferred that this is a reasonable rate based on predictions made by the New Energy Externalities Developments for Sustainability (NEEDS) in their document: Sixth Framework Programme, which can be viewed at http://www.needs-project.org/docs/results/RS1a/Deliverable%20D%203%203%20-%20RS%201a%20(3).pdf.

[5] According to the AWEA, “Although modern utility-scale wind turbines typically operate 65% to 90% of the time, they often run at less than full capacity. Therefore, a capacity factor of 25% to 40% is common, although they may achieve higher capacity factors during windy weeks or months.” http://www.awea.org/faq/wwt_basics.html#What%20is%20capacity%20factor

[6] I calculated this factor using figures from the 2007 IPCC Report (Working Group 1: The Physical Science Basis – Chapter 2, Table 2.14) and from http://www.eia.doe.gov/pub/oiaf/1605/cdrom/pdf/e-supdoc.pdf.

[7] According to the US EIA, the net electricity production in the US during 2008 was 4,110,000 MWh. http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/aer/pdf/pages/sec8_5.pdf

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Sunday, November 15, 2009

High School Football (Wk 8 Assignment)

Hello Reader,

For this week's assignment, we were asked "If you were going to pick a high profile organisation (like Ipswich Town Football Club) to promote sustainable consumption, which organisation would it be? Why would they be a good choice? And what would you do?" For those of you not in class with me, the Ipswich Town Football Club, hosted a public campaign aimed at their fans to make the club carbon neutral. While they achieved their goal a few seasons ago, the impression that I got during the lecture is that since then the idea has not come up again.


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In response to this week's prompt, I am going to suggest an answer that I think would be particularly well suited for Central Pennsylvania (where I grew up). My organization(s), though not entirely "high profile", would be high school (American) football teams. I believe that calling upon high school football teams would have a number of advantages over some higher profile organizations. Some advantages relate to the ubiquity of high school football teams, the dynamics of high school social structures, and community ties that teams tend to have.

First, it may be surprising to non-Americans how ubiquitous high school football teams are. Though I do not have hard statistics, it seems that nearly every American high school that has a large enough population of students has a football team. Since public high schools tend to be geographically spread based on the density of the general population, there tends to be at least one public high school per town or community. Thus, the football teams are often a source of entertainment and pride for smaller and rural communities. In fact, taking Central Pennsylvania as an example, local football teams garner enough popularity to warrant regular, Friday night news coverage on local television channels in addition to typically well-attended games. While larger urban centers tend to have professional or college sports teams that overshadow the popularity of high school teams in the general public, the potential impact of high school teams is not necessarily entirely undermined.

Beyond the external popularity of high school football teams, there are certainly some advantages to be gained due to the internal social structures of American high schools where "popular kids" tend to have significant influence. Fortunately, in the case of this scheme, while it is not universal, high school football teams tend to include some if not many "popular kids". Thus, if the football team is seen to be taking the lead on an issue, there is an increased chance that the issue will be addressed by other students. In other words, football players could help to breakdown social norms that might impede changes to a sustainable culture. Additionally, for whatever reason, local rivalries between neighboring high school teams are quite common and could be used appropriately to further promote sustainable consumption causes in the form of "team spirit" similar to the way that Ipswich Town Football Club did.

Finally, since most high school football teams are filled with players from the local community and watched by members of the local community, there is a great potential for community service and public participation in any schemes to promote sustainable consumption.

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Although the prompt requests specific actions to undertake, I think that the main issue at hand has been addressed and that the general model could be adapted to meet the needs of individual communities, so I am going to leave it at this. I hope you enjoyed this week's post.

Sensibly,

Sean Diamond

Wednesday, November 11, 2009

Wind vs. Nuclear Power

Dear Reader,

To divert from the usual flow of assignments, I am posting a response to a discussion on Linked-In in which I have recently taken part. The original post mentioned in the writing below refers to a CNN article entitled "Nuclear renaissance -- not dead yet" that can be found on cnnmoney.com. Please enjoy...

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Mr. Whealan,

To return to the topic at hand, I would like to consider the rent issue that you raised initially. In particular, let’s use the figures available in the article indicated in the original post. According to the article, the nuclear power plants in question would cost $10 billion ($10,000,000,000) to construct and would have a capacity of 5400 MW. If we consider that newly constructed nuclear facilities have regulated lifetimes before they need to be decommissioned for safety purposes, we can guess at a ‘rent’ for a nuclear facility. To keep the number simple, I will assume that the new facilities will have a lifetime of 50 year. Therefore, the ‘rent’ can be considered ($10,000,000,000 / 50 years =) $200,000,000 per year.

I realize that economist would argue that the money would be significantly reduced in value by the end of the 50 lifetime of the system due to discounting. However, given the assumption that the initial payment is made in the form of a loan (of some form or another) that will need to be paid with interest by someone (either tax payers in the case of subsidies or rate payers in the case of consumers) it seems reasonable enough to use the $200,000,000 per year figure, so let’s stick with that.

Now, we need to figure out the equivalent ‘rent’ for 5400 MW of wind-generated capacity. While I do not know what the size of the turbines you are referencing is, I will assume that we can use 2 MW turbines (to keep the math simple). This means that we will need (5400 MW / 2 MW =) 2700 wind turbines. Using your suggested rate of $10,000 per acre, and using an assumption of 1 turbine per acre, the cost of rent would be ($10,000 * 2700 =) $27,000,000 per year.

To be fair, we need to also include the construction/installation costs as we did in the nuclear case. According to windustry.org (http://www.windustry.org/how-much-do-wind-turbines-cost), an installed 2 MW wind turbine will likely cost about $3.5 million ($3,500,000). So our installation costs would be ($3,500,000 * 2700=) $9,450,000,000 in total. Or using a relatively short lifetime of 20 years, the installation portion of the rent would be about $472,500,000 per year. This means that the total ‘rent’ would be just under $500,000,000 per year.

Thus on the face of the issue, the wind turbine system would cost 2.5 times more per year. However, this disregards maintenance costs, fuel costs (and all cost associated with procuring fuel … none for wind, and substantial costs for nuclear), and decommissioning costs (and all costs associated with disposal … which I believe would actually be negative for wind since most if not all materials could be recycled, and which I believe would be very significant for nuclear if you consider that appropriate technologies for disposal or long-term storage have not really been developed and tested yet).

Thus, in my personal opinion, I believe that it is favorable to implement wind technologies where it is a possibility in place of nuclear technologies. Unfortunately, wind turbines suffer where nuclear power has an advantage in the phrase “out of sight, out of mind” on two levels. The first is that as you point out, wind turbines tend to be very visible, whereas nuclear power stations are much more compact. The second is that the users of the energy must suffer the environmental and financial drawbacks as they use them in the case of wind turbines, or the users may divert them for several generations in the case nuclear power.

In closing, thank you for prompting me to critically analyze the situation rather than simply go with what others have heard. I will be posting some form of this reply on a blog that I have had to create for a sustainable consumption course that I am currently taking. I hope that this has given you something to consider that you find digestible and not elitist. Also, if you find any trouble with my math or assumptions, please let me know.

Sincerely,

Sean Diamond

Tuesday, November 10, 2009

(Wk 7 Assignment)

Hello Reader,

For this week's assignment, we were asked to: "Write about a sustainable consumption‐related news story from this week’s media. Are there any unspoken assumptions in the piece, about the causes of unsustainable consumption? What about their assumptions about the ways to tackle it?"

I have decided to use the following article:
Study Analyzes Food Waste in Britain
By Pete Browne
Published in the New York Times
10th November 2009

As usual, I would put a direct link but the New York Times would probably change it soon anyway, so you will have to search for it yourself.


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As the title indicates, the article touches on the amount of food that is wasted in the UK. According to the article the amount of food wasted each year is approximately 6.6 million tons, or $20 billion worth of food and beverage, which represents the equivalent of 15 million tons of CO2 emissions from production, storage, and disposal. The article attributes this waste to over-consumption (in the purchasing sense), which leads to more food being prepared than can be eaten and allowing the food to spoil.

The article is fairly straightforward about the obvious suspected causes of unsustainable consumption. It also mentions fairly mainstream approaches to rectifying the issue, such as increasing the landfill tax as a means to discourage food (and presumably other) waste. However, it does not appear to mention or address any of potential root causes.

Just through common observations, I have my suspicions about potential causes. One potential cause is that it is now socially acceptable (and expected) that families will go grocery shopping no more than once a week, which means that foods are pre-portioned and packaged in bulk. This can result in unwanted leftovers that sit in the back of the fridge if they do not go directly into the trash. This social norm (along with other lifestyle choices that accompany it) has other side effects that likely accompany it that do not directly relate to food waste but are still problematic for consumers, such as a decrease in the amount of fresh food and an increase in the number of chemical preservatives in consumers' diets.

Furthermore, though I do not currently have a chance to look for specific research on it, I suspect that the current food system (pulling food out of boxes (and then out of bags and then out of plastic wrappers and then ...well, you get the idea), sticking it in a magic box to cook for 2-3 minutes on high, and then disposing of the extras into a bin that gets emptied early in the morning once a week) creates a physical and mental disconnect between consumers and the amount of effort and energy that goes into growing, preparing, and disposing of food. This subliminal psychological barrier can certainly be playing right into a pattern of unsustainable consumption that will be difficult to break with an increase in landfill taxes. If anyone can point to specific research or studies on this subject, I would appreciate it.

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I could go on, but I have had my fill for this post, and I wouldn't want to over do it! I promise I'll compost the leftovers. Catch up with me again next week on another exciting episode of sustainable consumption to find out if our heroes will be able to overcome the plot to make society unsustainable!

Yours in sustainability,

Sean Diamond