Solar: to wait or to install?

Hello Readers,

I recently had a conversation with a potential customer about installing solar PV. The customer was asking whether it makes more sense to wait a few years before installing solar or to install solar now. In particular the customer was curious whether upcoming technological improvements would mean that waiting a few years will result in a better payback.

In any event, this was my response (as part of an on-going conversation):

I take your point, but it was never my intention to indicate that the technology won't improve. I certainly expect that it will. It is simply a matter of timelines. If you read the article carefully, it says that such panels are just about to be developed and 39% efficiencies have be seen in the lab. To put this in context, that means that it will likely be 10-15 years before manufactures actually have such devices on the market (and at a reasonable price). 10-15 years is about half the life of a system, and it is about double the amount of time it takes to payback the costs of the system.

Thus, if one were to hypothetically install a system today, 10-15 years from now that system will have earned enough money to pay for itself and an additional system! Not to mention the fact that the original system will still have another 10-15 years of generating capability! Also, beyond financial benefits, installing a system today would mean that 10-15 years worth of coal and natural gas generation will have been displaced by the time your new product could be installed.

Besides, 10-15 years from now those same manufactures will still be researching and developing the next new thing, so in that case why not wait 20-30 years before installing a system? Well, I think you can see where I'm going with this. You could spend forever waiting for perfection, or your could reap the environmental and financial benefits all along! I don't know if this explanation is enough to convince you, but for right now it's the best one that I have. And assuming that you have a basic understanding of climate change, peak oil, and/or the other environmental and geopolitical issues with fossil fuel and nuclear electricity generation, I don't know that I could make a more persuasive argument without including lectures from an entire college degree. Of course, if you are interested in those topics, I could certainly recommend a few books.

 

Well, readers, of course I want to know what you think! Is it worth it to wait a couple years for better technology? If so, how long should you wait? How do you balance waiting for technological improvements with the urgency of climate change and the benefits of having solar right now?

 

~Sean