Wednesday, January 5, 2011

Dissertation: Methodology (7 of 8) - Other Limitations (1)


D.    Other Limitations

This section highlights some caveats to the results of this study that are not explicitly stated elsewhere in this paper. These caveats are points either within the model or the assumptions made during this study that may cause the results to imperfectly align with those found in analogous situations in the real world.

While efforts were made to approximate the shape and levels of consumer demand for electricity (see section III.3.b. and Equation 1), these approximations do not directly match up with the actual diurnal and weekly fluctuations in demand during any period of time. However, it should also be noted that no two weeks in the real world will have demand curves that precisely align with one another. Thus, readers must be cautioned that there is no reason to expect that any specific week in a year will yield the exact results of this study.

This study also does not attempt to account for annual (a.k.a. seasonal) fluctuations in consumer electricity demand. While other studies have attempted to do this, it did not seem prudent in this study since all of the scenarios (except BL) represent times at some point in the future that will likely have consumer demands that differ from those of today. Thus, as this study may yield results that could be considered representative of a week in July 2010. The results may just as easily be representative of a week in December 2029 due to relatively unpredictable increases (or decreases) in consumer demand. Therefore, this study does not attempt to claim that these results are particular to any time of year, and it cannot be determined with certainty that the results represent an upper- or lower-bound of the impact of ES during any particular year in the future.

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