Tuesday, November 6, 2012

Sandy: a footnote in history

Hello Readers,

Unless you have been living under a flooded rock, you know that hurricane Sandy started hitting the east coast of the US one week ago. There have been a flurry of articles in the news media discussing how climate change played a role in Sandy's strength...

Bloomberg Businessweek:
http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2012-11-01/its-global-warming-stupid

 ...among many others. And yet, climate change has just begun to take effect (according to basically any credible scientific climate model). Just imagine what the 14' storm surge in New York City could have been if the baseline sea-level had already risen 1-3' (as it may within the next several decades). What would the IKE be...

Washington Post:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/post/sandy-packed-more-total-energy-than-katrina-at-landfall/2012/11/02/baa4e3c4-24f4-11e2-ac85-e669876c6a24_blog.html

...if the global temperatures were a few degrees warmer, and the atmospheric humidity was just a little bit higher (holding a little bit more rain water), which would add to the amount of rain that fell in the span of just a few days...

Washington Post (again):
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/post/hurricane-sandy-recap-historic-storm-from-storm-surge-to-snow/2012/10/31/9a7c56d8-2362-11e2-ac85-e669876c6a24_blog.html

So yes, the impact of hurricane Sandy was (and still is) devastating, and I certainly hope that those still living through those impacts the best of luck, but please take a moment to consider that this storm may be considered mild or average in two or three decades (if climate change plays out how the models predict).

After you consider that, let's have a discussion about what we can do to avoid a worst-case-scenario. (Again, sorry for implying that the current situation is nowhere near the worst-case-scenario, but it is not even close.) Let's start talking about how we can reduce our greenhouse gas emissions nationally (reducing the long-term impacts of climate change) and how we can increase the baseline-resilience of our local communities (increasing our tolerance for extreme weather events). This is the two-pronged approach that we need to take in order to ensure our place in history as the Warmest Generation.

Regards and best wishes,

Sean Diamond

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